Macroeconometric Forecasting

In this macroeconomics course, you will learn to predict macroeconomic variables such as inflation, growth or consumption, and to create statistical models in economics and use them to predict responses to economic policy. You will learn from hands-on demonstrations of model-building, forecasting and policy analysis, using data sets from a wide variety of countries. Demonstrations and applications will be conducted using EViews —a popular software for estimating and simulating forecasting models on Windows. Free, temporary licenses for EViews will be made available for the duration of the course. Macroeconometric Forecasting is offered by the IMF with financial support from the Government of Japan.

• Evaluation of macroeconometric models
• Forecasting of uncertainty and forecasting for policy analysis
• Properties of time series data and model design
• Dynamic specification and the use of vector auto-regression models (VARs) and error correction models (VECMs)

• A background in statistics and economics at the undergraduate level is assumed.